Controversies in Prabowo’s first week as president signal challenges ahead, say analysts

JAKARTA: An official under fire for demanding 300 times the budget earmarked for his new ministry. Invitations to a family event marked with official government letterheads. 
The administration of Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto may only be several days old but his Cabinet has already been dogged by controversies.
Just a day after Mr Prabowo was sworn in on Oct 20, his newly appointed Human Rights Minister, Mr Natalius Pigai, immediately drew widespread criticism after he complained on Oct 21 that his new office would only receive an annual budget of 64 billion rupiah (US$4 million).
Mr Natalius argued that a budget of 20 trillion rupiah was more fitting for the newly formed ministry.
“Of the 20 trillion rupiah (needed), only 64 billion (is provided). The dream, vision and wishes of the Indonesian president will not be fulfilled,” said the minister, as quoted by BBC Indonesia.
Several politicians lambasted the statement, saying that Mr Natalius should have discussed this with Mr Prabowo when he took on the job instead of airing his displeasure publicly.
“This request should have been discussed internally within the administration first,” Mr Andreas Hugo Pareira, member of parliament from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) said in a statement on Oct 24.
“Every significant (budget) increase of one ministry will affect the budget for other ministries or sectors which also require huge sums of money like education, health and infrastructure.”
PDI-P is not part of the ruling coalition and Mr Prabowo has not responded to the incident.
On Oct 22, Mr Yandri Susanto, the minister of villages and development of disadvantaged regions, came under fire for sending out invitations for his mother’s death anniversary using his new office’s letterhead and stamp, which were designated for official matters.
Mr Yandri said he was too busy to notice that his staffers had sent out the invitations using the letterhead. 
“I am still new to being a minister. I am still learning,” the minister said on Oct 23, as quoted by Bisnis Indonesia news portal.
So much drama in such a short period of time comes as no surprise to analysts, given the diverse professional backgrounds, political associations and bureaucratic experiences of Prabowo’s “red and white” Cabinet.
“They come from different backgrounds and represent different interests. These controversies emerged as a consequence of Mr Prabowo trying to accommodate his supporters,” Mr Hendri Satrio, a political analyst from Jakarta’s Paramadina University, told CNA.
With a total of 116 positions: 48 ministers, 56 vice-ministers, five agency chiefs and seven special envoys, Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet is the largest the country has seen in six decades.
In contrast, his predecessor Mr Joko “Jokowi” Widodo only had 34 ministers and 17 vice-ministers.
The new president decided to spin off several ministries such as the ministry of education and culture which was split into three different institutions: The ministry of basic education, the ministry of higher education, science and technology; and the ministry of culture.
Mr Prabowo argued that adding new Cabinet positions was needed so that each minister would focus on a specific role and thus boost their performance.
But analysts said political horse-trading could be the real reason behind the decision.
Only around 20 of Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet positions are filled by academics and technocrats. The rest are occupied by politicians from his 11-party coalition, businessmen who supported his campaign and Mr Prabowo’s former subordinates in the military and defence ministry.
Mr Hendri of Paramadina University said a Cabinet so large and diverse is prone to internal conflicts and rifts, reducing the government’s effectiveness in doing its job.
“Mr Prabowo needs to regularly review his Cabinet and he needs to take firm actions against underperforming ministers if he wants his key programmes to be successful,” he said.
Mr Prabowo won the presidential election in February with the support of nine political parties.
Since then, he has been able to woo two other parties: The National Awakening Party and the Prosperous Justice Party, having met leaders of both parties separately in August to discuss the possibility of them joining the Cabinet, among other things. 
“Prabowo wants political stability so even those with no seats (in parliament) are accommodated in his government,” Mr Arya Fernandes of Jakarta-based think-tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said at a discussion on Oct 25.
Mr Prabowo is also awarding positions to chairmen of volunteer groups, celebrities and businessmen tied to his campaign.
Among them are Mr Budi Arie Setiadi from the volunteer group Projo who is now the minister for cooperatives; and mining, sports and media mogul Erick Thohir who was reappointed as minister for state-owned enterprises, a position he has held since 2019 during Jokowi’s second term in office. 
Mr Prabowo also gave Cabinet positions to non-partisan pro-democracy activists including Mr Mugiyanto Sipin of the Association for the Family of the Disappeared, and religious figures such as Mr Nasaruddin Umar, the Imam of Southeast Asia’s biggest mosque Istiqlal and a member of Indonesia’s largest Muslim organisation, Nahdlatul Ulama.
Mr Mugiyanto has been appointed as deputy minister for human rights while Mr Nasaruddin is now the religious affairs minister.
Mr Arya of CSIS said that by awarding Cabinet positions to non-partisan figures, Mr Prabowo ensures that his administration runs largely unopposed by forces in both the parliament as well as the general public.
“It is no surprise that the Cabinet is chunky because there is a need from the president to ensure political stability both in and outside of parliament,” he said.
But having such a large Cabinet has its drawbacks, according to Dr Tauhid Ahmad of the think-tank, Institute for Development of Economics and Finance.
“New ministries means new offices, recruits and operational expenses which will burden state coffers,” he told CNA. 
In addition, there are risks of overlapping authorities and contradicting policies between ministers, which will result in ineffective bureaucracy and regulatory uncertainty, he added.
Indonesia spends around 513 trillion rupiah a year to pay for salaries and benefits of all civil servants and government officials across the country. 
The Indonesian Forum for Budget Transparency estimated that with the additional ministries, this could balloon by 20 to 30 per cent.
Coordinating minister for the economy Airlangga Hartarto said that the new Cabinet members will have to make do with what was earmarked for the 34 original ministries before they were spun off as the government deliberates a new budget for next year.
To build synergy among Cabinet members of different backgrounds and political affiliations, Mr Prabowo, a former army general, organised a three-day retreat at a military academy in Central Java from Oct 25 to Oct 27. 
This is the first time an Indonesian president has staged a retreat for newly appointed ministers. 
But the retreat was panned by observers for resembling a military boot camp as ministers were transported using a military aircraft, made to use combat-like camouflage fatigues and were seen standing and marching in formation.
“I do not mean to turn you into a military (personnel). The military way is emulated by many governments and corporations. The military way conducted by corporations is all about discipline,” Mr Prabowo said on Oct 25, in opening remarks in front of his Cabinet members.
“This is where I took my oath to defend this country,” he continued, adding that he expected his Cabinet to show the same level of loyalty to the nation.
Military observer, Mr Al Araf of East Java’s Brawijaya University, said the choice of venue and content of the retreat is inappropriate.
“These ministers are civilian officials tasked with formulating and implementing policies which affect civilians’ lives. Why must the retreat be done in a military style?” he said.
Mr Andreas Harsono, Indonesia researcher at non-governmental organisation Human Rights Watch, echoed the sentiment. “There are better ways to build bonds. It doesn’t have to be military in nature,” he told CNA.
Mr Nasaruddin said he found the military-style regiment at the retreat useful to develop discipline and create a sense of camaraderie among members of the cabinet.
“These exercises are important for cabinet members. I think it would be very good if every ministry conducts similar (retreats) for their officials as well,” the presidential palace’s website quoted the 65-year-old as saying.
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahli Lahadalia said the hardest thing for him is the lack of sleep. 
“We slept at 2am and at 4am the alarm went off. But it is good to have that discipline in life. When you are a state official, even if you have one or two hours of sleep once duty calls you must be ready,” the 48-year-old said, according to the same website. 
Meanwhile, political analysts are worried about the lack of opposition to provide checks and balances to Mr Prabowo’s reign. 
“Without opposition, who do people turn to when the government is not doing its job?” Mr Feri Amsari, a constitutional law expert from West Sumatra’s Andalas University, told CNA. 
There are seven political parties not in the president’s Cabinet: PDI-P, the National Democrat (Nasdem), the United Development Party (PPP), the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura), the Labour Party, the Nusantara Awakening Party and the Ummat Party.
Of the seven, only the PDI-P and Nasdem garnered enough votes in the February election to qualify for seats in parliament.
Nasdem, which originally supported Mr Anies’ bid for presidency, has stated its intention to join Mr Prabowo’s coalition. The party’s deputy chairman Saan Mustopa said on Oct 14 that Nasdem was offered positions at the Cabinet but the posts suggested by Mr Prabowo did not suit the party. 
Although not in the Cabinet, Mr Saan said that Nasdem “will fully support Mr Prabowo’s policies and programmes”.
Mr Prabowo has also been trying to woo the PDI-P, Indonesia’s biggest political party which has 110 out of 580 seats in parliament, to join his administration. The PDI-P has so far been vague about whether it welcomes the offer or will stay as Mr Prabowo’s only opposition in parliament.
“We will support Mr Prabowo’s administration but we will not put any of our cadre in the Cabinet,” senior PDI-P member, Madam Puan Maharani told reporters after Mr Prabowo’s inauguration on Oct 20 as quoted by CNBC Indonesia. Mdm Puan is the daughter of PDI-P founder and chairwoman, Megawati Sukarnoputri.
Mr Prabowo did choose Mr Budi Gunawan, a former police general who served as a personal aide to Mdm Megawati when she became vice-president in 1999 and later president in 2001, as his coordinating minister for politics and security. 
Although Mr Budi and Mdm Megawati still maintain close ties, Mdm Puan said Mr Budi was never a member of her party.    
Mr Hendri of Paramadina University said these statements indicate that both parties may have one foot at the door and may one day join Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet should the opportunity present itself.
“Like they say: in politics, there are no perpetual enemies,” he said.
Mr Prabowo was able to defeat his rivals with the widest margin in Indonesia’s history during the February election, partly because he is seen as a continuation of his popular predecessor Jokowi, who had a high approval rating of more than 77 per cent.
The former defence minister had also pledged to continue many of Jokowi’s policies and programmes, particularly his ambition to move the capital from overcrowded Jakarta to Nusantara, a city built from scratch in the eastern part of Borneo. The relocation is expected to cost Indonesia at least US$32 billion.
Mr Prabowo has not personally spoken about the Nusantara project since he was sworn in, although Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni said on Oct 26 that the president wants to complete key government and parliamentary buildings there in the next four years.
Mr Prabowo also has lofty goals of his own. 
During his campaign, Mr Prabowo promised to provide free meals to all Indonesian children, pregnant women and breastfeeding mothers across the vast archipelago. He also pledged to build 3 million homes for low-income families every year.
These programmes are expected to cost taxpayers US$29 billion and US$25 billion annually.
To ensure Indonesia maintains fiscal discipline and minimises the chance of a budget deficit, Mr Prabowo appointed his former colleague in Jokowi’s Cabinet, Madam Sri Mulyani Indrawati to again serve as finance minister.
Meanwhile, Mr Erick was asked to stay on as state-owned enterprise minister because of his track record of turning underperforming companies into ones that are profitable.
Analysts noted that the presence of several people who served under Jokowi in Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet provides a smooth transition between Jokowi and Mr Prabowo’s presidencies and signalled to investors that there would not be any drastic policy changes in the years to come.
But their performance may be hindered by Mr Prabowo’s decision to put more people in the Cabinet.
Mdm Sri Mulyani, for example, now has to work together with three vice-ministers, one of whom is Mr Prabowo’s nephew, Mr Thomas Djiwandono. Previously, Mdm Sri Mulyani only had one deputy minister, economist Suahasil Nazara, who also resumed his role in Mr Prabowo’s Cabinet.
Mr Erick also has three vice-ministers, including Mr Aminuddin Ma’ruf who served as a deputy secretary for Prabowo’s presidential campaign. During Jokowi’s term, Mr Erick was accompanied by two vice ministers. One, former banker Kartika Wirjoatmojo, continued his role under Mr Prabowo.
“(Adding more vice ministers) will only complicate bureaucracy and slow down the decision-making process,” said Mr Bhima Yudhistira, director of think tank Centre for Economics and Law Studies.
Mr Bhima said it is important for Mr Prabowo’s economic team to be as effective and efficient as possible given the many challenges ahead. 
With so many projects and programmes in the pipeline as well as burgeoning operational expenses due to the additional ministries, Mr Prabowo’s team might struggle to prevent a budget deficit. 
Quoting several anonymous sources, Bloomberg wrote in June that Mr Prabowo plans to take up more loans from domestic and international lenders to finance his programmes, increasing the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio by 10 percentage points over the next five years.
Indonesia’s debt-to-GDP ratio already stands at 40 per cent this year, way above the pre-pandemic level of around 30 per cent.
These will come back and haunt Indonesia in the future, Mr Bhima said. 
Already, Mr Prabowo needs to think about repaying the US$152 billion loan which Indonesia took during the COVID-19 pandemic. These debts will mature between 2025 and 2027.
“With so many challenges ahead, can Mr Prabowo achieve his dream of an eight per cent economic growth? From the looks of it, maintaining the current five per cent growth already will require a lot of hard work,” he said.